Books to look forward to in 2015 – updated

It’s the time of year when I try to flag up interesting-looking titles out in the next six months or so. There’s a feast of reading coming up. This post has been updated thanks to many suggestions from people on Twitter.

Starting with my own publisher, Princeton University Press, one imminent highlight is the 3rd and  expanded edition of Robert Shiller’s [amazon_link id=”0691166269″ target=”_blank” ]Irrational Exuberance[/amazon_link]. Ian Morris has another new book (how does he write so many?), [amazon_link id=”0691160392″ target=”_blank” ]Foragers, Farmers and Fossil Fuels: How human values evolve[/amazon_link]. I am *really* looking forward to reading Dirk Philipsen’s [amazon_link id=”0691166528″ target=”_blank” ]The Little Big Number: how GDP came to rule the world and what to do about it[/amazon_link]. Francois Bourgignon’s [amazon_link id=”069116052X” target=”_blank” ]The Globalization of Inequality[/amazon_link] is due in May, Cormac O Grada’s [amazon_link id=”0691165351″ target=”_blank” ]Eating People is Wrong[/amazon_link] in April. There’s also Gernot Wagner & Martin Weitzman’s forthcoming [amazon_link id=”0691159475″ target=”_blank” ]Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet[/amazon_link]. Outside economics, [amazon_link id=”0691161453″ target=”_blank” ]The Enlightenment[/amazon_link] by Vincenzo Ferrone and [amazon_link id=”0691150648″ target=”_blank” ]The Shape of the New: four big ideas and how they made the modern world[/amazon_link] by Scott Montgomery and Daniel Chirot look enticing. For professional reasons I’ll want to read the new edition of the Stiglitz and Atkinson [amazon_link id=”0691166412″ target=”_blank” ]Lectures on Public Economics[/amazon_link] that’s out in April. Outside my field but very timely, a second edition of Jordi Gali’s Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Business Cycle: An introduction to the New Keynesian framework.

[amazon_image id=”0691166528″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Little Big Number: How GDP Came to Rule the World and What to Do about It[/amazon_image]  [amazon_image id=”069116052X” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Globalization of Inequality[/amazon_image]  [amazon_image id=”0691150648″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Shape of the New: Four Big Ideas and How They Made the Modern World[/amazon_image]

From MIT Press, Nick Stern has a follow-up to his big climate change report, in [amazon_link id=”0262029189″ target=”_blank” ]Why Are We Waiting? The logic, urgency and promise of tackling climate change[/amazon_link]. [amazon_link id=”0262028441″ target=”_blank” ]There is Measuring Happiness: The economics of well-being[/amazon_link] by Joachim Weimann, Andreas Knabe, and Ronnie Schöb. On crises, [amazon_link id=”026202859X” target=”_blank” ]Understanding Global Crises: An Emerging Paradigm[/amazon_link] by Assaf Razin; [amazon_link id=”0262028697″ target=”_blank” ]Systemic Risk, Crises, and Macroprudential Regulation[/amazon_link] by Xavier Freixas, Luc Laeven, and José-Luis Peydró. From the ever-interesting Vaclac Smil, [amazon_link id=”0262029146″ target=”_blank” ]Power Density: A Key to Understanding Energy Sources and Uses[/amazon_link]. Outside economics, I like the look of [amazon_link id=”0262028816″ target=”_blank” ]Atlas of Knowledge: Anyone Can Map[/amazon_link] by Katy Börner, and [amazon_link id=”0262029014″ target=”_blank” ]The Eternal Letter: Two Millennia of the Classical Roman Capital[/amazon_link] edited by Paul Shaw. There’s also a cultural history of the shipping container, [amazon_link id=”0262028573″ target=”_blank” ]The Container Principle: How a Box Changes the Way We Think[/amazon_link] by Alexander Klose (regular readers of this blog will know of my fetish for containers).

OUP is bringing us quite a lot of interesting titles on its forward list: [amazon_link id=”0199922624″ target=”_blank” ]The United States of Excess: Gluttony and the Dark Side of American Exceptionalism[/amazon_link] by Robert Paarlberg; [amazon_link id=”0199363862″ target=”_blank” ]Disruptive Power: The Crisis of the State in the Digital Age[/amazon_link] by Taylor Owen; [amazon_link id=”0198729626″ target=”_blank” ]Migration[/amazon_link] by Christian Dustmann; [amazon_link id=”0199351252″ target=”_blank” ]Everything in Its Place: Entrepreneurship and the Strategic Management of Cities, Regions, and States[/amazon_link] by David B. Audretsch; [amazon_link id=”0199381100″ target=”_blank” ]The Ant Trap: Rebuilding the Foundations of the Social Sciences[/amazon_link] by Brian Epstein; Choosing Not to Choose: [amazon_link id=”0190231696″ target=”_blank” ]Understanding the Value of Choice[/amazon_link] by Cass R. Sunstein; [amazon_link id=”0190204834″ target=”_blank” ]The Maze of Banking: History, Theory, Crisis [/amazon_link]by Gary B. Gorton; a book of essays [amazon_link id=”0198738188″ target=”_blank” ]Sunlight and Other Fears[/amazon_link] by Amartya Sen; and [amazon_link id=”0199392005″ target=”_blank” ]Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, The Great Recession, and the Uses-and Misuses-of History[/amazon_link] by Barry Eichengreen.

[amazon_image id=”0199922624″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The United States of Excess: Gluttony and the Dark Side of American Exceptionalism[/amazon_image]

Two coming up from Yale University Press really interest me: Dieter Helm’s [amazon_link id=”0300210981″ target=”_blank” ]Natural Capital[/amazon_link]; and [amazon_link id=”0300213549″ target=”_blank” ]Hubris[/amazon_link] by Meghnad Desai, about what the crash has revealed about the state of economics.

 [amazon_image id=”0300213549″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Hubris: Why Economists Failed to Predict the Crisis and How to Avoid the Next One[/amazon_image]

 

From Cambridge University Press, a must-read for me will be [amazon_link id=”1107676495″ target=”_blank” ]British Economic Growth, 1270-1870[/amazon_link] by a distinguished cast of economic historians led by Stephen Broadberry. Two among quite a few on environmental economics are [amazon_link id=”1107698367″ target=”_blank” ]The Renaissance of Renewable Energy[/amazon_link] by Gian Andrea Pagnoni & Stephen Roche and [amazon_link id=”1107062888″ target=”_blank” ]Ecosystem services: from concept to practice[/amazon_link] by J Boume and P Van Beukering. There’s also [amazon_link id=”110747938X” target=”_blank” ]An Economic History of Europe: Knowledge, Institutions & Growth 600 to the present[/amazon_link], Karl Gunnar Persson and Paul Sharp. A more technical one to look forward to is Causal Inference in Statistics by Guido Imbens and Donald Rubin.

[amazon_image id=”1107070783″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]British Economic Growth, 1270-1870[/amazon_image]

Later in the Year, Harvard University Press is publishing The Rise and Fall of Neoliberal Capitalism by David Kotz; and as a paperback Angus Burgin’s 2012 book The Great Persuasion: Reinventing Free Markets since the Depression. In April, we get Anthony Atkinson’s Inequality: What Can Be Done. I’ll want to read also  From Mainframes to Smartphones: A History of the International Computer Industry by Martin Campbell-Kelly and Daniel Garcia-Swartz. Brandon Garrett’s [amazon_link id=”0674368312″ target=”_blank” ]Too Big to Jail: How Prosecutors Compromise with Corporations[/amazon_link] is just out. This month comes Frank Pasquale’s [amazon_link id=”0674368274″ target=”_blank” ]The Black Box Society: The Secret Algorithms that Control Money and Information[/amazon_link], which sounds really intriguing.

[amazon_image id=”0674368312″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Too Big to Jail: How Prosecutors Compromise with Corporations[/amazon_image]  [amazon_image id=”0674368274″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Black Box Society: The Secret Algorithms That Control Money and Information[/amazon_image]

Beyond the university presses, Norton is publishing Citizen Coke: The making of Coca Cola capitalism by Bartow Elmore, and [amazon_link id=”0393246809″ target=”_blank” ]Move: putting America’s infrastructure back in the lead[/amazon_link] by Rosabeth Moss Kanter. In January the new edition of Burton Malkiel’s classic A Random Walk Down Wall Street is out. Unmissable will be Dani Rodrik’s Economics Rules: Rights and Wrongs of Dismal Science in the autumn.

[amazon_image id=”0393241122″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Citizen Coke – The Making of Coca-Cola Capitalism[/amazon_image]

Cesar Hidalgo’s Why Information Grows: The Evolution of Order, from Atoms to Economies from Penguin sounds unmissable too. I like the sound of Philip Roscoe’s [amazon_link id=”0241972728″ target=”_blank” ]A Richer Life: How Economics Can Change the Way We Think and Feel[/amazon_link]. Robert Skidelsky has compiled [amazon_link id=”1846148138″ target=”_blank” ]The Essential Keynes[/amazon_link]. James Rickard is predicting The Death of Money: The coming collapse of the international monetary system – the UK paperback edition of a US bestseller.

John Kay’s books are also must-reads. He has Other People’s Money – about redesigning the financial system for the people not for it’s own participants – out in September (Profile in the UK, Public Affairs in the US).

From Harper Collins, we will get [amazon_link id=”006224275X” target=”_blank” ]The Network: The Battle for the Airwaves and Birth of the Communications Age[/amazon_link] by Scott Woolley, about RCA; and a bio of Elon Musk by Ashlee Vance; and Data-ism by Steve Lohr, about Big Data.

Alvin Roth has a terrific-looking book out from Houghton Mifflin, Who Gets What – and Why: The New Economics of Matchmaking and Market Design. It’s due in June.

[amazon_image id=”0544291131″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Who Gets What — And Why: The New Economics of Matchmaking and Market Design[/amazon_image]

From Routledge in January, Morten Jerven’s [amazon_link id=”1138842117″ target=”_blank” ]Measuring African Development: Past and Present[/amazon_link]. Zed Books is publishing in May his [amazon_link id=”1783601329″ target=”_blank” ]Africa: Why Economists Get It Wrong[/amazon_link].

Metro Books will be publishing in January [amazon_link id=”1782199950″ target=”_blank” ]The Secret Life of Money: Everyday Economics Explained[/amazon_link] by Daniel Davies and Tess Read. Peter Bylund has flagged up his intriguing-looking The Production Problem: A New Theory of the Firm, an Austrian perspective.

Picked up from the papers this weekend: Roberto Savaiano, [amazon_link id=”1846147697″ target=”_blank” ]Zero Zero Zero[/amazon_link] about the cocaine trade (Allen Lane, July); Post-capitalism: A Guide to Our Future (he hopes!) by Paul Mason, Penguin in August; and by Dominic Sandbrook, The Great British Dream Factory (Allen Lane in October) about the success of British popular culture – I’m hoping he covers its commercial success.

[amazon_image id=”1846147697″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Zero Zero Zero[/amazon_image]

Little Brown will publish Mervyn King’s Alchemy or Achilles’ Heel? Money and Banking in Modern Capitalism in the autumn; the press release says: “The book will argue that although reform of the banking system is needed, the present crisis is not one of banking alone, but of ideas. Assessing the proper role of money and the implications of the massive growth in banking, and giving his views on managing uncertainty, the power of markets, monetary unions and the role of central banks, this will be a landmark and important book about where we are now, and where we should go next.” Ben Bernanke is also due to publish a book about his time at the Fed.

Little Brown is also the publisher of Will Hutton’s [amazon_link id=”1408705311″ target=”_blank” ]How Good Can We Be[/amazon_link], due out in a couple of weeks.

[amazon_image id=”1408705311″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]How Good We Can Be: Ending the Mercenary Society and Building a Great Country[/amazon_image]

Basic is publishing Martin Ford’s The Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of A Jobless Future in April.

[amazon_image id=”1480574724″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future[/amazon_image]

Finally, in my hands now, forthcoming from Icon Books, is It’s Not About the Shark: How to Solve Unsolvable Problems by David Niven. I’ll report back on whether it has the answer.

As always, if you’re a publisher and I’ve missed something exciting, let me know and I’ll update this!

Update: Gary Karz of Investor Home has sent me his list of books on the financial crisis – a really great resource, which includes upcoming titles as well.

Most popular posts of 2014

It’s that time of year. Here they are, most-visited first.

1. Investment rats – massively visited, and massively followed up in many places.

2. Inequality, economics and politics – summary of a Piketty conference at the Bank of England

3. Capital and destiny – review of Thomas Piketty’s [amazon_link id=”B00I2WNYJW” target=”_blank” ]Capital in the 21st Century[/amazon_link]

4. Canada versus Minsky – review of [amazon_link id=”0691155240″ target=”_blank” ]Fragile by Design[/amazon_link]

5. Teaching economics

6. Not bowling alone – a review of [amazon_link id=”0300203772″ target=”_blank” ]Hard Times: The Divisive Toll of the Economic Slump[/amazon_link] (not [amazon_link id=”014143967X” target=”_blank” ]Hard Times[/amazon_link]!)

7. Economics books in 2014 – my annual preview of the catalogues for the year ahead. This year’s coming up soon!

8. The eclipse of capitalism – or maybe not – a review of [amazon_link id=”1137278463″ target=”_blank” ]The Zero Marginal Cost Society[/amazon_link] by Jeremy Rifkin

9. Festival of Economics – books associated with the Festival

10. Calling young economists who want to write – about the FT/McKinsey competition. I hope it had lots of entries.

My brilliant holiday reading

Cormac O Grada’s [amazon_link id=”0691165351″ target=”_blank” ]Eating People Is Wrong (and other essays on famine) [/amazon_link]proved a good antidote to seasonal over-indulgence. It’s a – perhaps surprisingly – compelling read. I have a proof copy, so will save a review until closer to publication date in April.

[amazon_image id=”0691165351″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Eating People Is Wrong, and Other Essays on Famine, Its Past, and Its Future[/amazon_image]

My other holiday read was Elena Ferrante’s [amazon_link id=”1609450787″ target=”_blank” ]My Brilliant Friend[/amazon_link]. I’d never heard of the author until a newspaper feature on her books appeared a few weeks ago, and happened to pick up a copy because it was on the table at the front of Daunts, one of my favourite bookshops. It’s one of the best novels I’ve read. It’s about the specifics of two girls growing up in a tough, violent working class community in mid-20th century Naples. But also, as with all great novels, about the generalities of human life: friendship between girls (even better than Margaret Atwood’s [amazon_link id=”1853811262″ target=”_blank” ]Cat’s Eye[/amazon_link]); relations between men and women; economic and social forces changing the fabric of life; education as a ladder out of poverty and the resulting deracination. [amazon_link id=”1609450787″ target=”_blank” ]My Brilliant Friend[/amazon_link] is the first of a quartet, and the author has three previous novels, so that’s my fiction for 2015 sorted.

[amazon_image id=”1609450787″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]My Brilliant Friend[/amazon_image]

Rogues and capitalists

“The whole life I place before myself is money, money, money and what money can make of life,” says Bella in Dickens’ [amazon_link id=”B00ES25UCY” target=”_blank” ]Our Mutual Friend[/amazon_link]. The Victorian novelists wrote a lot about money, not just Dickens, but Mrs Gaskell (remember the bank failure in [amazon_link id=”0199558302″ target=”_blank” ]Cranford[/amazon_link], the exigencies of factory life in [amazon_link id=”0141199725″ target=”_blank” ]Mary Barton[/amazon_link]), George Gissing ([amazon_link id=”0141199938″ target=”_blank” ]New Grub Street[/amazon_link], [amazon_link id=”1491261005″ target=”_blank” ]The Whirlpool[/amazon_link]), Trollope ([amazon_link id=”1853262552″ target=”_blank” ]The Way We Live Now[/amazon_link]) and, across the Channel, [amazon_link id=”0140440178″ target=”_blank” ]Balzac[/amazon_link] (famously referred to by Thomas [amazon_link id=”B00I2WNYJW” target=”_blank” ]Piketty[/amazon_link]), [amazon_link id=”0140444300″ target=”_blank” ]Hugo[/amazon_link], [amazon_link id=”0199538697″ target=”_blank” ]Zola[/amazon_link].

Bella’s line is quoted in Ian Klaus’s [amazon_link id=”0300181949″ target=”_blank” ]Forging Capitalism: Rogues, Swindlers, Frauds and the Rise of Modern Capitalism[/amazon_link]. An irresistible title. The book gives an account of the essential role played by trust as capitalist markets developed through the century:

“Here is a fundamental point about free market capitalism and trust within it: without social exclusion or extensive processes of verification, trust is hard to come by. Whereas other risks could be hedged or managed through new assets or new types of insurance, the risk of fraud became more prevalent as the market expanded. Simply put, trust was sometimes a market inadequacy but always a market necessity.”

[amazon_image id=”0300181949″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Forging Capitalism: Rogues, Swindlers, Frauds and the Rise of Modern Finance (Yale Series in Economic and Financial History)[/amazon_image]

This central argument is illustrated through a series of brilliant stories about both the evolution of new assets and commercial relationships but also about a series of colourful rogues and swindlers. They played on the importance of reputation to pull off their confidence tricks; in a kind of arms race, new methods of verifying information were devised, such as audits, or detailed prospectuses –  and new audacities were developed by the rogue fraternity. We ended with the modern system of ‘a series of overlapping institutions’ authenticating transactions.

The book starts with Adam Smith’s [amazon_link id=”0140432086″ target=”_blank” ]Wealth of Nations[/amazon_link], noting its pairing with the [amazon_link id=”0143105922″ target=”_blank” ]Theory of Moral Sentiments[/amazon_link]. It ends with Friedrich Hayek’s [amazon_link id=”0415253896″ target=”_blank” ]The Road to Serfdom[/amazon_link], a hymn of praise to markets, arguing that it has to be read alongside [amazon_link id=”041540424X” target=”_blank” ]The Constitution of Liberty[/amazon_link]. Klaus writes: “The greatest intellectual salesmen of free market capitalism all supposed the market would be buttressed by morality. You could not possibly unleash the power of the one without the support of the other.” Unfortunately, of course, that’s just what happened in every period of turbulence in capitalism’s history, including our most recent. Now, just as in the early Victorian era, reputation is everything – because morality and institutions have let us down.

[amazon_image id=”0140432086″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Wealth of Nations: Books I-III[/amazon_image]  [amazon_image id=”0143105922″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Theory of Moral Sentiments (Penguin Classics)[/amazon_image]  [amazon_image id=”0415253896″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Road to Serfdom (Routledge Classics)[/amazon_image]  [amazon_image id=”041540424X” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Constitution of Liberty (Routledge Classics)[/amazon_image]

One final thought: will new technologies help bridge the gap? Dave Birch’s [amazon_link id=”1907994122″ target=”_blank” ]Identity is the New Money[/amazon_link] suggests the combination of ubiquitous mobile and social media means they might. Social connection, perhaps asset ownership and provenance, can in principle be verified now in a way the Victorians couldn’t have dreamed of.

[amazon_image id=”1907994122″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Identity Is the New Money (Perspectives)[/amazon_image]

Fast and slow thoughts about extended warranties

Dozing through the early business news this morning, I heard that extended warranties are back in the frame for offering consumers a bad deal (I’ll add the link when the programme is up on the iPlayer). It brought back memories. More than ten years ago (in 2002-3), I was a member of a Competition Commission inquiry into the UK extended warranties market.

For the great majority of consumers, these service or insurance contracts on domestic electrical goods are never a good deal. Appliances are well covered against malfunction by manufacturers’ warranties and UK consumer law, and often against accidental damage by normal domestic insurance policies too; and are anyway not all that prone to breaking down these days. The expected cost of repair bills or replacement is sufficiently low that most people are better off self-insuring (i.e. using their savings). A small number of cash-constrained (i.e. poor) people will benefit from paying for an extended warranty when they have the money upfront, but that’s about it.

At the time on the Competition Commission, we debated whether or not we should ban the sale of the warranties in-store. It was a close call – we decided instead to insist that stores display the warranty price alongside the price of the item so customers had a bit of time to think about it rather than (as was then the norm) being pressed to buy one when paying at the till.

With hindsight, I think we should have banned their sale in stores. Knowing what we now do about behavioural insights – especially how bad people are at assessing probabilities and expected values – would have tipped the decision, I think. The OFT looked at the market again in 2011, and the ombudsman is still saying the market isn’t working well for consumers. Oxera has a nice report about behavioural insights for these products. The right behavioural remedy it alludes to in the conclusion is probably to stop people having to decide under any pressure at all whether or not to buy one – they should do so at home, at leisure, and stores could always send them home with a form or email them a link. Maybe a copy of Kahneman’s [amazon_link id=”0141033576″ target=”_blank” ]Thinking, Fast and Slow[/amazon_link] as well?

[amazon_image id=”0141033576″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Thinking, Fast and Slow[/amazon_image]