The thirst for understanding

The yearbook from the Publishers Association is always an interesting snapshot of the UK book market. The news this year was that a big (19.2%) increase in the value of digital sales to £509m in 2013 didn’t quite offset the small-ish (-5.2%) decline to £2,880m in physical book sales. The total was down 2.2% overall to just under £3.4bn in sales. The detail is always interesting too. Prices of physical books were up 2.3% in the year, with the biggest increases in non-fiction and academic/reference books – sales in the schools market were down after a couple of years of stonking rises. Intriguingly, the report doesn’t give e-book price changes – I wonder why? By far the fastest growth in e-book sales has been ‘consumer’ e-books ie. not academic, professional or school.

Last weekend there was an article in The Guardian about the revival of Penguin’s Pelican imprint of accessible non-fiction works. This weekend Lorien Kite in the Financial Times has reflected on the news about the Pelican series flapping back into existence. They were the product, he writes, of a more optimistic time when the spirit of self-improvement was strong. The first 10 sixpenny Penguins published in 1935 sold a million copies in four months.

Actually, I think the 1930s were not that optimistic,but rather similar to the 2010s in the degree of uncertainty people feel about the future. There is a great thirst for understanding. But what about books now, when they face such stiff competition from other, trivial, attractions like Candy Crush Saga and Instagramming one’s meals? Kite concludes – and I agree – “Yes, publishers of non-fiction feel embattled but there is plenty to reassure them, not just in the success of titles such as the million-selling [amazon_link id=”0141033576″ target=”_blank” ]Thinking, Fast and Slow[/amazon_link] by Daniel Kahneman, the psychologist – or, for that matter, Piketty’s [amazon_link id=”067443000X” target=”_blank” ]Capital in the Twenty-First Century[/amazon_link]. The popularity of online lectures such as TED talks, the continuing boom in literary festivals, even the internet voluntarism epitomised by Wikipedia, all suggest that the self-improving impulse is alive and well.” In the UK industry figures, the number of units of physical books sold declined 7.3% in 2013, but in that mix was a 22.7% decline in fiction sales compared with a 3.3% drop in non-fiction sales. Penguin looks sensible to be pushing on non-fiction at present.

What’s more, the publishing industry is showing signs of navigating its digital transition rather better than other business sectors. I’d *really* like to know what’s going on with e-book pricing.

Incidentally, I came across somewhere yesterday – I can’t remember where so tell me if it was your tweet! – this from Kahneman: “We don’t think as much as we think we think.” Great line.

[amazon_image id=”0141033576″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Thinking, Fast and Slow[/amazon_image]

Economists and experts

There was another favourable review of Bill Easterly’s [amazon_link id=”0465031250″ target=”_blank” ]The Tyranny of Experts [/amazon_link]in The Observer yesterday – it doesn’t seem to be online, but here is the FT’s from a few weeks ago.

[amazon_image id=”0465031250″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Tyranny of Experts: Economists, Dictators, and the Forgotten Rights of the Poor[/amazon_image]

I will read it soon. Meanwhile, it reminded me of a passage in Jeremy Adelman’s fabulous biography of Albert Hirschman, [amazon_link id=”0691163499″ target=”_blank” ]Worldly Philosopher[/amazon_link]. Hirschman was working in Colombia in the early 1950s on a World Bank project, one of its first big country ‘surveys’, led by Lauchlin Currie.  Currie was allowed to turn a survey into a general development ‘master plan’, “Laying the tracks for a problem regarding the place of local knowledge in the business of economic missionizing.” Adelman writes that the plan was, “Coded in the scientific rhetoric of economic missionaries.” Hirschman clashed with Currie in terms of both personalities and ideas. The hallmark of Hirschman’s approach to economic development was exactly the importance of the specifics and local knowledge.

[amazon_image id=”0691163499″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Worldly Philosopher: The Odyssey of Albert O. Hirschman[/amazon_image]

I don’t know whether Easterly’s book cites Hirschman, or [amazon_link id=”0691117829″ target=”_blank” ]Peter Bauer[/amazon_link], who had somewhat similar views and insisted on the importance of historical specificities, but it sounds like their approaches are in sympathy.