Putting people in economic theory

Some books are hard to judge. I can’t decide whether [amazon_link id=”1107678943″ target=”_blank” ]An Economic Theory of Greed, Love, Groups and Networks[/amazon_link] by Paul Frijters with Gigi Foster is brilliant or barking. It looks appealing, an attempt to combine the good aspects of the theoretical rigour of choice theory based on self-interest with the realities of human emotions. Of course love and group identity shape our choices! The book has endorsements on the back from economists I greatly respect. Andrew Oswald calls it, “The most remarkable book I have read in the last decade…. a book that is intellectually taxing but unforgettable.” Jeffrey Williamson and Bruno Frey love it too. So embarking on reading this, I thought it was going to be in the rich tradition of the Adam Smith of [amazon_link id=”0143105922″ target=”_blank” ]Moral Sentiments[/amazon_link].

[amazon_image id=”1107678943″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]An Economic Theory of Greed, Love, Groups, and Networks[/amazon_image]

Instead, it’s a more difficult and theoretical read. It’s best explained in a blog post by Paul Fritjers, who says:

“[W]e take the stance of aliens looking at humans as just another species, with love merely one behavioural strategy available to that species. Blasphemous as this may sound, our goal is to apply the scientific method to the realm of the heart.

At the most basic level, we contend that love is a submission strategy aimed at producing an implicit exchange. Someone who starts to love begins by desiring something from some outside entity. This entity can be a potential sexual partner, a parent, “society”, a god, or any other person or abstract notion.From a position of relative weakness, the loving person tries to gain control over this entity.”

In fact, there are four core concepts, including the fundamental one of self-interested choice (‘greed’), in this alternative decision theory. They are love, groups (and power relations) and networks. These concepts are selected from all the other possibilities social scientists have suggested as important in shaping economic choices, such as social norms, freedom, identity, institutions and so on. How they are selected is not fully explained; the author says it follows much work on the explanatory power of each as a potential core concept but I am puzzled about the selection and the mix of categories – emotions, social structures, descriptors of status. Nor did I ever really understand how ‘explanatory power’ was tested. One could say that any of these concepts is self-evidently important in some way in individual choices and social outcomes.

A large chunk of the book sets out this rather odd idea that love is a generalised ‘Stockholm syndrome’ (as Andrew Oswald describes it on the back), a means of getting something from a more powerful person or entity. Apparently, neuroscience says love is not an emotion and nobody is pre-programmed to love anything: “A child needs to be stimulated to develop the ability to love… Unlike many animals, humans do not necessarily love forever what  they bonded with in childhood.” So the book goes on to explain the ‘evolutionary advantage of the love program’, and fits love into the mould of power relations. This takes the book onto a discussion of groups and power, and from groups to networks and markets. These sections touch on other, familiar areas of sociology and network theory.

Somewhere in the necessarily quite dense chapters on this wide-ranging material, I lost track of how the four core concepts lead us to a new choice theory. The final section of the book does look at how the new theory applies in familiar economic contexts. I focused on competition policy, and was disappointed to find that the consequence is to add not much to mainstream economic theory: “The view at which this book arrives regarding competition regulation is thus very close to the standard mainstream view in terms of the merits of any individual case. What is added is an understanding of who the regulator actually are and why they are there, what keeps them honest, where their power comes from, and what language affected parties will use in their appeals to regulators.” But how weird to add an understanding of the regulator and yet not an understanding of how big companies accumulate power and lobby regulators and politicians.

I think the book wants to rescue the fundamental assumption in economics of self-interested choice and make it relevant given all that we’ve learned about evolution, neuroscience and psychology in recent times. I thoroughly applaud this aim, because it is consistent with the evidence from evolutionary biology. Finding out how all this material across the disciplines can be married in a theory of decision making, on which economic models can build, is an important research agenda. This book is an ambitious effort to do so. It didn’t work for me, but now I’d like a lot of other people to read it and say what they think.

 

Brave and humble economists

Someone on Twitter (@kestontnt) sent me a link to an article on The Economics of Courage by INET’s Robert Johnson in a recent issue of the OECD Observer. The courage it calls for is that required to stand out against the conventional wisdom, which is what INET is all about of course. I’m optimistic that the conventional wisdom in economics is shifting significantly, although maybe that’s because last week was such an encouraging one, with a workshop led by Wendy Carlin on INET’s new CORE curriculum programme, and a fabulous session at the Rethinking Economics conference.

Robert Johnson’s article cites HL Mencken’s well-known essay on ‘The Dismal Science’ (in [amazon_link id=”1440083754″ target=”_blank” ]Prejudices, 3rd series[/amazon_link]) on a brave Professor Nearing who was kicked out of the University of Pennsylvania for daring to challenge the status quo; and also a book I don’t know, by Norbert Häring and Niall Douglas, [amazon_link id=”0857284592″ target=”_blank” ]Economists and the Powerful: Convenient Theories, Distorted Facts, Ample Rewards[/amazon_link].

[amazon_image id=”0857284592″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Economists and the Powerful: Convenient Theories, Distorted Facts, Ample Rewards (Anthem Other Canon Economics)[/amazon_image]

The sociology of any academic discipline involves insiders, successful in a discipline in its current form, who are resistant to outsiders suggesting that they’ve got it all wrong. There are also incentives against change in any existing system – promotion and success depend on publishing in the top journals, which want small advances on the existing body of knowledge; there is little reward for changing course materials and teaching methods whereas the time cost is large; for any individual caution is a better bet than radicalism; and so on. Against that, there is the intrinsic reward of intellectual discovery, the humility that really ought to arise from both the recent track record of economic forecasts and an appreciation of the consequences of simplistic ‘market knows best’ thinking – and a bit of courage. But refusniks opposed to the status quo have more company now than at any time in the past 50 years.

 

Economics Textbooks

Steven Clarke asked in a comment on an earlier post about recommendations for an intro economics textbook. Here are my thoughts. Others might want to add their comments.

He has started reading Samuelson, which is a good choice – a classic – so carrying on with it is fine.

The current market leader is Greg Mankiw’s [amazon_link id=”0030259517″ target=”_blank” ]Principles of Economics[/amazon_link] – apparently it has 70% of the US market.

Others often used in UK undergraduate courses are:
Sloman – [amazon_link id=”0273763121″ target=”_blank” ]Economics[/amazon_link]
Lipsey and Chrystal – [amazon_link id=”0199286418″ target=”_blank” ]Economics[/amazon_link]
Begg – [amazon_link id=”0077107756″ target=”_blank” ]Economics[/amazon_link]

There is a CC download of an intro textbook by Preston McAfee – I haven’t read it but it looks pretty encouraging and is free so might be worth looking at for comparison.
http://www.mcafee.cc/Introecon/

The trouble with the textbooks in economics is that they contain things we economists know to be wrong. The brilliant John Sutton at LSE has long complained about this, and Steve Keen made much of it in [amazon_link id=”1848139926″ target=”_blank” ]Debunking Economics[/amazon_link]. So it is also worth reading some of the more popular books that don’t cover the technical grounding but do explain what economists actually do. My favourite is Tim Harford’s [amazon_link id=”0349119856″ target=”_blank” ]The Undercover Economist[/amazon_link]. My own book Sex, Drugs and Economics (pdf) is fabulous, and free, but a bit out of date. I’m not so keen on [amazon_link id=”0141019018″ target=”_blank” ]Freakonomics[/amazon_link] – it’s a good read but takes to a gimmicky extreme the Becker school of economics that says you can analyse decisions to commit crime or have babies or get married just like decisions to buy a new pair of shoes. There is some insight in this but it’s not the whole story.

[amazon_image id=”0349119856″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Undercover Economist[/amazon_image]

Finally, Geoff Riley of Tutor2u has a great booklist of enrichment reading specifically for economics students.

Positive, normative and provocative economics

Last night it was my privilege to give the annual Pro Bono Economics lecture. I’d be delighted to hear people’s comments on it. (It would be even more pleasing if you’d look at the website and consider making a donation to their work.)

Many people in the audience have been enthusiastic, but one macroeconomist has taken great offence at my criticism of macro. I daresay I was too provocative – Dave Ramsden of the Treasury, chairing the evening, diplomatically described it as ‘challenging’ – but it does simply amaze me that so many (but not all) macroeconomists don’t think anything much needs to change in their area. Anyway, views welcome.

In the chat afterwards, somebody recommended to me [amazon_link id=”0521033888″ target=”_blank” ]Rational Economic Man[/amazon_link] by Martin Hollis and Edward Nell. The blurb says:

“Economics is probably the most subtle, precise and powerful of the social sciences and its theories have deep philosophical import. Yet the dominant alliance between economics and philosophy has long been cheerfully simple. This is the textbook alliance of neo-Classicism and Positivism, so crucial to the defence of orthodox economics against by now familiar objections. This is an unusual book and a deliberately controversial one. The authors cast doubt on assumptions which neo-Classicists often find too obvious to defend or, indeed, to mention. They set out to disturb an influential consensus and to champion an unpopular cause. Although they go deeper into both philosophy and economics than is usual in interdisciplinary works, they start from first principles and the text is provokingly clear. This will be a stimulating book for all economic theorists and philosophers interested in the philosophy of science and social science.”

[amazon_image id=”0521033888″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Rational Economic Man[/amazon_image]

I’d like it to have been a bit more specific about the authors’ doubts, but it sounds intriguing.

Richard Davies of The Economist (@RD_Economist on Twitter) has recommended [amazon_link id=”0631194355″ target=”_blank” ]Three Methods of Ethics[/amazon_link] by Marcia Baron et al.

[amazon_image id=”0631194355″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Three Methods of Ethics: A Debate (Great Debates in Philosophy)[/amazon_image]

I can see I’m going to have to improve my philosophy to continue in the vein of the Pro Bono lecture.

UPDATE: Paul Kelleher (@kelleher_) recommends [amazon_link id=”041588117X” target=”_blank” ]Philosophy of Economics[/amazon_link] by Julian Reiss

[amazon_image id=”041588117X” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Philosophy of Economics: A Contemporary Introduction (Routledge Contemporary Introductions to Philosophy)[/amazon_image]

The Scarlet Letter for economists

An econometrics paper that can make you laugh? Yes, Ed Leamer, famously the author of a 1983 paper, Let’s Take the Con Out of Econometrics (pdf), has a superb 2010 article in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, Tantalus on the Road to Asymptopia – it’s free access,  only moderately technical, and brilliant.

Leamer’s theme is the same in the more recent paper as in the earlier one, the need for a profound culture change in empirical economics:

“Can we economists agree that it is extremely hard work to squeeze truths from our data sets and what we genuinely understand will remain uncomfortably limited? We need words in our methodological vocabulary to express the limits. We need sensitivity analyses to make those limits transparent. Those who think otherwise should be required to wear a scarlet-letter O around their necks, for “overconfidence.””

The point is that the available economic data will always support a range of different theories, and Leamer advocates sensitivity analyses that illustrate the spectrum of parameter values and theories consistent with observed data. Economists need to go back to 1921, he argues, and read Keynes’s [amazon_link id=”B0080K73L6″ target=”_blank” ]Treatise on Probability[/amazon_link] and Frank Knight’s [amazon_link id=”0486447758″ target=”_blank” ]Risk, Uncertainty and Profit[/amazon_link]. Both books point out that decisions are subject to three-valued logic (yes, no, don’t know) whereas economic theory assumes away the large territory of don’t know.

I strongly agree with Leamer’s conclusions:

“Ignorance is a formidable foe, and to have hope of even modest victories, we economists need to use every resource and every weapon we can muster, including thought experiments (theory), and the analysis of data from nonexperiments, accidental experiments, and designed experiments. We should be celebrating the small genuine victories of the economists who use their tools most effectively, and we should dial back our adoration of those who can carry the biggest and brightest and least-understood weapons. We would benefit from some serious humility, and from burning our “Mission Accomplished” banners. It’s never gonna happen.”

He, like me, is profoundly sceptical about macroeconomics: “Our understanding of causal effects in macroeconomics is virtually nil, and will remain so.”

I must go away and read Leamer’s 2009 book, [amazon_link id=”364207975X” target=”_blank” ]Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories[/amazon_link].

[amazon_image id=”364207975X” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories[/amazon_image]