The tough life of the corner office

[amazon_link id=”0446571598″ target=”_blank” ]The Org[/amazon_link] by Ray Fisman and Tim Sullivan has a subtitle that many people might consider to be a contradiction in terms: The Underlying Logic of The Office. A majority of us work in offices, and we know it isn’t logic so much as emotion or perhaps just habit that drives things. Often, indeed, the emotions of the kindergarten playground.

Nevertheless, Fisman and Sullivan have achieved that rare feat of writing a book about management and organisation that offers genuine new insights, and is a good read as well. I thoroughly enjoyed it.

The key moment of illumination comes early in the book when they write: “Jobs that stay inside the org are the hard ones: hard to measure, hard to define and hard to do. If they were easy, we’d hire contractors to do them for us, and the market, with prices working their magic, would work just fine at getting the job done.” The way to understand orgs – and why so many are so badly run – is that the work people do in them is characterised by information asymmetries and transactions costs.

The book applies the principles of information economics to many examples of organisations ranging from the US Army and the Baltimore Police Department to Apple and Citigroup. It also covers issues such as organisational culture, rocketing executive pay, merger mania, innovation (they recommend the ‘skunkworks’ approach) and the like, bringing in other areas of economics as needed – game theory, economics of ‘superstars’, behavioural psychology.

For example, take the pay spiral. The chapter begins by recounting John Thain’s extravagance – $1,400 for a waste paper basket in an office remodelling that cost $1.2 million. It moves onto Henry Mintzberg and others documenting that what CEO’s do is get interrupted by people who want to talk to them, in between all the meetings. They have little time alone and certainly don’t spend time poring over data and documents to make a rational calculation about the best thing for the business to do. Decisions are based on the CEO’s judgements about information conveyed verbally by a selection of other people. The skill of the CEO is gathering and weighing soft information.

Relatively few do this well. After all, running an org is really difficult, as already described. So slightly greater skill in doing so is amplified into significantly greater pay: a good CEO decision will be really valuable financially to a big company. Just like Hollywood stars, a slight edge makes an individual executive a hot property in the CEO jobs market. The market rewards them correspondingly. Remuneration committees embed this upward spiral because they have interlocking memberships – not necessarily the same individuals, but connected in a social network. Besides, the Remcos believe that their guy is better than average – the Lake Woebegone effect – so deserves better than average CEO pay. And the spiral continues.  So this chapter uses various parts of the economics toolkit to explain the excessive pay phenomenon. CEOs are doing difficult work, are valuable to their orgs – and they’re still overpaid.

For, contrary to popular belief, management is in general a good thing. The authors cite evidence that better managers deliver better outcomes in the public sector, where administrators and managers tend to be reviled  – in terms of exam results in schools or survival rates in hospitals. One of the most striking bits of evidence is the massive increase in productivity in an Indian textiles firm given $250,000 of free consultancy advice by Accenture (49 firms turned down the offer, showing what they thought of management consultants). The key to the improvement was installing systems for tracking inventory and monitoring performance – reducing, in other words, the information asymmetries that had held back the business.

The book is packed with great examples. Fisman is Professor of Social Enterprise at Columbia Business School, and was the co-author of another terrific book, [amazon_link id=”0691144699″ target=”_blank” ]Economic Gangsters[/amazon_link] (with Ted Miguel). Sullivan is editorial director of Harvard Business School Press.

Their bottom line is that managing an organisation is intrinsically difficult. “If there’s one message to take away from this book, it’s that a glass half full may be the best you can hope for.” That is so much more plausible a conclusion than conventional management books that advocate one gimmick or another.

Even with this note of realism, though, the principles and examples set out in The Org will help anybody who manages anything think through the specifics of their own organisation, and maybe improve its management a little. And even small improvements are well worth having.

[amazon_image id=”0446571598″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Org: The Underlying Logic of the Office[/amazon_image]

What to read in 2013, part 1

A quick browse through some of the publishers’ catalogues reveals plenty of enticing new books due out this winter and spring. I’ll start with a selection from some of the university presses.

From my own publisher Princeton University Press, a lot of economics and finance titles coming out. One I’ve read in proof and will be reviewing is [amazon_link id=”0691158681″ target=”_blank” ]The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict, and the Perilous Road Ahead for the World Economy[/amazon_link] by Michael Pettis, an outstanding book. Others that look enticing are [amazon_link id=”0691057761″ target=”_blank” ]Tesla: Inventor of the Electrical Age [/amazon_link]by W. Bernard Carlson; [amazon_link id=”0691155674″ target=”_blank” ]Worldly Philosopher: The Odyssey of Albert O. Hirschman[/amazon_link] by Jeremy Adelman; and [amazon_link id=”0691149097″ target=”_blank” ]The Battle of Bretton Woods: John Maynard Keynes, Harry Dexter White, and the Making of a New World Order[/amazon_link] by Benn Steil.

[amazon_image id=”0691158681″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict, and the Perilous Road Ahead for the World Economy[/amazon_image]

Yale University Press will be bringing out Stephen King’s [amazon_link id=”0300190522″ target=”_blank” ]When The Money Runs Out: The End of Western Affluence[/amazon_link]; and at the same time (May) Timothy Beardson’s [amazon_link id=”0300165420″ target=”_blank” ]Stumbling Giant: The Threats to China’s Future[/amazon_link]. Sounds like they need to be read as a pair. I also like the look of Emma Griffin’s [amazon_link id=”0300151802″ target=”_blank” ]Liberty’s Dawn: A People’s History of the Industrial Revolution.[/amazon_link]

[amazon_image id=”0300190522″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]When the Money Runs Out: The End of Western Affluence[/amazon_image]

Oxford University Press has forthcoming books looking at a couple of very important issues, global governance and corporate governance. [amazon_link id=”0199693900″ target=”_blank” ]There’s Divided Nations: Why global governance is failing, and what we can do about it[/amazon_link] by Ian Goldin; and [amazon_link id=”0199669937″ target=”_blank” ]Firm Commitment Why the corporation is failing us and how to restore trust in it[/amazon_link] by Colin Mayer.

[amazon_image id=”0199693900″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Divided Nations: Why global governance is failing, and what we can do about it[/amazon_image]

At Cambridge University Press, the range of titles includes quite a few that intrigue me: [amazon_link id=”1107609623″ target=”_blank” ]Outsourcing Economics: Global Value Chains in Capitalist Development[/amazon_link] by William Milberg and Deborah Winkler; [amazon_link id=”1107678943″ target=”_blank” ]An Economic Theory of Greed, Love, Groups and Networks [/amazon_link]by Paul Frijters and Gigi Foster; and [amazon_link id=”B00ADP734S” target=”_blank” ]Wall Street Values: Business Ethics and the Global Financial Crisis[/amazon_link] by Michael A. Santoro and Ronald J. Strauss are among them.

[amazon_image id=”1107678943″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]An Economic Theory of Greed, Love, Groups, and Networks[/amazon_image]

In the spring, the University of Chicago Press is bringing out a new book by the excellent science writer Philip Ball, [amazon_link id=”1847921728″ target=”_blank” ]Curiosity: How Science Became Interested in Everything[/amazon_link]. I’m very interested in [amazon_link id=”0226256618″ target=”_blank” ]Political Arithmetic: Simon Kuznets and the Empirical Tradition in Economics[/amazon_link] by Robert Fogel; and somewhat interested in both [amazon_link id=”022603772X” target=”_blank” ]The Rise of the Public Authority: Statebuilding and Economic Development in Twentieth-Century America[/amazon_link] by Gail Radford; and [amazon_link id=”0226066959″ target=”_blank” ]The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking[/amazon_link] by Michael D. Bordo.

[amazon_image id=”0226256618″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Political Arithmetic: Simon Kuznets and the Empirical Tradition in Economics (National Bureau of Economic Research Series on Long-Term Factors in Economic Development)[/amazon_image]

Out any time now from MIT Press is [amazon_link id=”026201842X” target=”_blank” ]Banking the World: Empirical Foundations of Financial Inclusion[/amazon_link], edited by Robert Cull, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt and Jonathan Morduch. Given the interest economists have in robots at present, maybe we should all read [amazon_link id=”0262018624″ target=”_blank” ]Robot Futures[/amazon_link] by roboticist Illah Reza Nourbakhsh. I like the look of [amazon_link id=”0262018713″ target=”_blank” ]America’s Assembly Line[/amazon_link] by David E Nye and James Heckman’s [amazon_link id=”0262019132″ target=”_blank” ]Giving Kids a Fair Chance (A Strategy that Works)[/amazon_link] – Heckman being one of the first economists to identify the importance of early years upbringing and education for both private and social outcomes.
[amazon_image id=”0262018713″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]America’s Assembly Line[/amazon_image]
Of course, this isn’t an exhaustive list of either academic publishers or their titles, and other suggestions will be welcome. I’ll report on what’s in the catalogues of some of the general publishers another time.

Making our own progress

This is my least favourite day of the year, so I’ve been gazing moodily out at the rain while reading this and that online. Courtesy of Andrew Kelly of the Bristol Festival of Ideas, I came across this extraordinary essay, Dark Ecology, by Paul Kingsnorth. I can’t do justice to its existential gloom – it needs to be read to get the full, intense flavour of its despair and anger. It took me on to the Dark Mountain Manifesto, launched by Kingsnorth in 2009. Point 1 of the manifesto is:

“We live in a time of social, economic and ecological unravelling. All around us are signs that our whole way of living is already passing into history. We will face this reality honestly and learn how to live with it.”

Empires and societies clearly do collapse. Ecological disasters occur. There is a large literature on it – recent references would include Joseph Tainter’s [amazon_link id=”052138673X” target=”_blank” ]The Collapse of Complex Societies[/amazon_link] and Jared Diamond’s [amazon_link id=”0241958687″ target=”_blank” ]Collapse[/amazon_link].

[amazon_image id=”052138673X” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Collapse of Complex Societies (New Studies in Archaeology)[/amazon_image]

And yet, New Year’s grouch though I am, the Dark Mountain call to withdraw from modern, technological society does not convince me at all. It conflates environmental questions, which any sensible person will be concerned about, with a range of different economic and social questions. It therefore rejects any application of the conventional framework of policy thought to the environmental problems – whereas I believe pricing carbon properly would be the biggest single step possible towards environmental sustainability, meaning anybody who cares about this should be focused on the political economy of raising the price of carbon-use.

This isn’t to say there won’t be some dark times ahead. The global economy isn’t remotely out of the financial/economic crisis, and political leaders haven’t begun to respond adequately to tackle huge challenges ranging from the fiscal via the demographic to the ecological. But progress, including technological progress, is both possible and continuing; while many of the problems identified by Kingsnorth are in principle soluble. To take one (minor) example, his “human scale” shops are feasible – it is weak competition policy and dismal planning policies that have turned the UK into a monoculture of giant stores.

Indeed, I hope Dark Mountainism doesn’t spread too far, interesting as the manifesto is. As Paul Krugman set out in a brilliant but relatively unknown QJE paper (pdf), History versus Expectations, in 1990, the rate at which the economy grows depends fundamentally on positive expectations for the future outweighing the habits of the past: people need to have a sense of progress for it to occur. Much better to engage with the world and change it, than to withdraw from it.

A happy, peaceful and prosperous 2013 to all readers of this blog –  and here’s to making it happen.

Most popular posts of 2012

It’s that time again. The most popular posts on this blog are somewhat surprising – who would have thought the character and methodology of economics was such a draw? The top 10 of 2012 were:

1. A macroeconomist tells me off – read, presumably, by the tribes of Paul Krugman admirers, as many of them took the time to tell me off again in their comments

2. The Enlightened Economist Prize – won by Ariel Rubinstein’s [amazon_link id=”1906924775″ target=”_blank” ]Economic Fables[/amazon_link]

[amazon_image id=”1906924775″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Economic Fables[/amazon_image]

3. Tribes of economists – about the divisions in the profession

4. The assumptions economists make – a review of the [amazon_link id=”0674052269″ target=”_blank” ]book of the same title[/amazon_link] by Jonathan Schlefer

[amazon_image id=”0674052269″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Assumptions Economists Make[/amazon_image]

5. Oh no, not happiness again – one of my rants against targeting ‘happiness’, required all-too-frequently

6. Unicorns, Higgs Bosons and macroeconomics – a write-up of an international symposium on the state of macro

7. Teaching humans to be economists – a trailer for the conference I organised in early 2012 on the teaching of economics, whose papers are collected in [amazon_link id=”1907994041″ target=”_blank” ]What’s The Use of Economics[/amazon_link]

[amazon_image id=”1907994041″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]What’s the Use of Economics?: Teaching the Dismal Science After the Crisis[/amazon_image]

8. Romantic nihilism – more on the anti-growth, ‘happiness’ bandwagon, linked to my book [amazon_link id=”0691156298″ target=”_blank” ]The Economics of Enough[/amazon_link]

[amazon_image id=”0691156298″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Economics of Enough: How to Run the Economy as If the Future Matters[/amazon_image]

9. A mess beyond fixing? – a review of Robert Peston’s book [amazon_link id=”1444757091″ target=”_blank” ]How Do We Fix This Mess?[/amazon_link]

[amazon_image id=”1444757091″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]How Do We Fix This Mess?: The Economic Price of Having it All, and the Route to Lasting Prosperity[/amazon_image]

10. American plutocracy – the evidence – linked to Martin Gilens’ book, [amazon_link id=”0691153973″ target=”_blank” ]Affluence & Influence: Economic Inequality and Political Power in America [/amazon_link]

[amazon_image id=”0691153973″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Affluence and Influence: Economic Inequality and Political Power in America (Russell Sage Foundation Copub)[/amazon_image]

Class, housing and the economy

Lynsey Hanley, author of [amazon_link id=”1847087027″ target=”_blank” ]Estates: An Intimate History[/amazon_link], was one of the speakers at the Festival of Economics in November. I just read her book, which is terrific. It restores to centre stage the key issue of class in understanding British society and the economy – and in thinking about the challenge of tackling embedded poverty, which is almost always located in these specific areas of housing we call estates. (Funny to think their name must have originally meant to evoke the arcadian idyll of country estates.)

[amazon_image id=”1847087027″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Estates: An Intimate History[/amazon_image]

I’ve long thought we talk too little about class in the policy debate. Take schooling, for example. Children at London’s schools on average now have higher attainment than the English average; but I’ve lost count of the number of middle-class London friends who claim to have opted for private schools for their children because they’re worried about their education. Nonsense (I think) – they’re actually more worried about the social contagion of mixing with working class children. Nobody is entitled to call themselves left-wing or progressive, in my view, if they opt out of their local state schools, that is opt out of their community. As Estates points out, they key failure of the education system has been the low expectations, on the part of teachers and politicians alike, of what children from low income families can achieve.

Lynsey is brilliant in writing about the effect of the physical environment of post-war council estates on their inhabitants. “It has insanity designed into it,” she writes of the example of the Wood estate in Birmingham, where she grew up. Estate inhabitants have worse health, including mental health, lower life-expectancy, higher risk of drug abuse and unemployment. The book describes the interaction of the dreadful design of the housing, using poor quality materials and not maintained, with the evolution of housing policy. In particular, the Thatcher era sale of council housing, with local authorities forbidden from using the proceeds to build new homes for rent, meant the rump of unattractive estates were quickly filled with the ‘problem’ families. They became isolated locations for one class only, the underclass. Their downward spiral was then inevitable – from the inner city slums of the Industrial Revolution to the ‘slums in the sky’ tower blocks, whose inhabitants above the 5th floor are likely to be on benefits and members of an ethnic minority.

As she notes, Thomas Sharp in his 1949 book [amazon_link id=”B0007JU6EY” target=”_blank” ]Town Planning[/amazon_link] was clear about the danger of one-class communities – he described them as “social concentration camps: places in which one social class is concentrated to the exclusion of all others.” Add in the absence of amenities – shops, pubs, parks, buses – and they became the exact opposite of the Jane Jacobs ideal of a vibrant urban community (in [amazon_link id=”067974195X” target=”_blank” ]The Death and Life of Great American Cities[/amazon_link]).

Of course, one challenge in post-war housing policy was the shortage of housing, given strong demand and planning restrictions. (I think that Lynsey en passant assumes too readily that all of the green belt has to stay sacrosanct – only 1.5% of the UK’s land area is built on, only 2.3% in England – see also Kate Barker’s excellent Review of Housing Supply and , and [amazon_link id=”0099539772″ target=”_blank” ]Edgelands[/amazon_link] by Paul Farley and Michael Symmons Roberts.) In the immediate post-war years the shortage was so acute that many returning servicemen had to live in prefabs – as my parents and aunties did for some years.

My auntie and uncle, cousin and big brother, outside the family prefab

The UK’s housing crisis is still acute, although now middle-class young people too cannot easily afford to buy a first home, and many middle-class as well as working-class families will struggle to pay their mortgage if interest rates ever go up. Despite the sluggish economy house prices in some areas have continued to rise, so pronounced is the shortage, while other areas have a surfeit of homes to buy and unmet demand to rent. This market does not work at all well. It also destabilizes the economy as a whole. One day, one of the political parties will see an opportunity in this. But it is a huge challenge too.

I highly recommend [amazon_link id=”1847087027″ target=”_blank” ]Estates[/amazon_link]. Good reading alongside Owen Hatherley’s [amazon_link id=”1844677001″ target=”_blank” ]A Guide to The New Ruins of Great Britain [/amazon_link](I’ve not yet read his latest, [amazon_link id=”1844678571″ target=”_blank” ]A New Kind of Bleak: Journeys Through Urban Britain[/amazon_link]), as well as the other books referred to above. And I just bought [amazon_link id=”1844678644″ target=”_blank” ]Chavs: The Demonisation of the Working Class[/amazon_link] by Owen Jones, another book about the neglected and disparaged working class.

[amazon_image id=”1844678644″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Chavs: The Demonization of the Working Class[/amazon_image]