Author Archives: Diane Coyle

The Great Rebalancing

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Chapter 1 of [amazon_link id=”0691158681″ target=”_blank” ]The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict and the Perilous Road Ahead for the World Economy[/amazon_link] by Michael Pettis is available to read for free online at the Princeton University Press website.

It isn’t often that I bill anything as a must-read, but this really is, for anybody who wants to understand what has been happening in the world economy in the past decades, the causes and consequences of global imbalances. As another recent comment on my previous post on this book puts it, this book is a game changer. Click through and read the sample chapter!

[amazon_image id=”0691158681″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict, and the Perilous Road Ahead for the World Economy[/amazon_image]

The 20th Century

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I’ve started [amazon_link id=”009956355X” target=”_blank” ]Thinking the Twentieth Century[/amazon_link], the final book by Tony Judt, a conversation with historian Timothy Snyder. The first of Judt’s books I read was the supreme [amazon_link id=”009954203X” target=”_blank” ]Postwar[/amazon_link], followed by [amazon_link id=”0718191412″ target=”_blank” ]Ill Fares the Land[/amazon_link] and [amazon_link id=”009955559X” target=”_blank” ]The Memory Chalet[/amazon_link]. So I’ve been looking forward to getting the paperback of this last one.

[amazon_image id=”009956355X” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Thinking the Twentieth Century[/amazon_image]

One comment in what I’ve read so far brought me to a halt, though,  in a passage about the wide and lasting damage inflicted by two wars on European culture but also the economy, due to the retreat from early 20th century globalization. “It took until the mid-1970s for even the core economies of western Europe to get back to where they had been in 1914. … In short, the industrial economies of the west (with the exception of the United States) experienced a 60 year decline, marked by two world wars and an unprecedented economic depression.” Reading this on the Tube, I was sure it was an overstatement – what about Les Trentes Glorieuses, the post-world war 2 golden years of growth?

And so it proves. Turning to the invaluable (xls spreadsheet) Angus Madison database of world GDP over the centuries, per capita GDP (in 1990 Geary-Khamis dollars) in western Europe grew by about half a percent a year between 1914 and 1945, and substantially faster after that. Still, the figures don’t undermine the underlying point about the economic price paid for political upheaval and war in Europe in the first half of the 20th century. Nor do GDP figures capture the destruction of assets – and lives – or the psychological effects of that terrible half century.

Fear and loathing

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[amazon_link id=”1844678644″ target=”_blank” ]Chavs: The Demonization of the Working Class[/amazon_link] by Owen Jones deserves the praise it has earned from other reviewers. It paints a picture of class division in modern Britain that is over-simplified in some ways, but captures an important truth. The big truth is that the worlds of the social classes have separated, and the middle classes and elites have grown more contemptuous – because fearful – of working class people the less contact they have with them.

In my own comfortable suburban milieu this takes the form of supposedly left-wing friends who nevertheless send their children to private schools. London’s state schools add more value than any other schools in the country so the ‘rationale’ for this choice in terms of not wanting to sacrifice one’s children’s education for the sake of one’s own principles is threadbare. I believe the reason is the fear of social contact with other classes. (My children have attended our local comprehensive.)

Jones pins the start of the demonisation of the working class as ‘chavs’ to the economic and political ideology of the Thatcher government. Housing policy seems key. The right-to-buy for council housing was taken up by those families with a bit more money, leaving the poorest in a shrinking stock of council accommodation, which was increasingly earmarked for the most troubled families and isolated from other parts of society. The knot of related problems we are so familiar with consequently developed in these estates – the unemployment, ill-health, low-quality housing, poor schooling, drug abuse, crime. (Lynsey Hanley’s [amazon_link id=”1847087027″ target=”_blank” ]Estates[/amazon_link] is brilliant on this issue.) Jones is equally scathing about New Labour, for acceding to the Thatcher revolution, and its depiction of the working class as something to escape from rather than a cohesive class to be proud of and raise collectively.

He also opened my eyes to just how disdainful and disrespectful is so much comment and language about the working classes. Clearly, I lead a sheltered life by never reading tabloid newspapers. The book is definitely onto something, too, in noting that the politics of race are sometimes deployed to disguise the politics of class – the white working classes can be portrayed as simply anti-immigrant and racist, another reason (for the commentariat of the left) for being disdainful about them.

However, there are some aspects of Jones’s pre-Thatcher perspective that lead him to underplay some of the complexities of class politics in modern Britain. For example, he argues that commentators malign the British working classes as work-shy couch potatoes who just want to claim benefits by comparing them with hard-working immigrants who, far from ‘stealing’ jobs, are doing them because the natives are too idle to bother. Until recently I was a member of the Migration Advisory Committee and spoke to many employers during my five year term about their reasons for preferring immigrant labour; it is a fact that large numbers of young native-born people have never been taught the basics of the workplace – punctuality, politeness, putting in some effort – and are essentially unemployable. This is not to say it is their individual fault. But to trace the reasons, schools are facing a social catastrophe with a portion of their intake. I have heard London teachers talk of the widespread low-level neglect of children who turn up at primary school lacking minimal social and language skills, unwashed, fed on crisps – all of which makes discussion of which kings’ reigns to cover in the national curriculum a bit, well, academic.

It is hard to know where to start addressing these multiple challenges, although clearly housing and education lie at the centre of the complex of problems. Chavs gives the impression of wanting to turn the clock back to the pre-Thatcher era of union power, which wouldn’t be my choice. Still, the book does a great service in calling out the unacceptable demonisation that has accompanied the growth of inequality and the withdrawal of the powerful elites and middle classes from their own society.

[amazon_image id=”1844678644″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Chavs: The Demonization of the Working Class[/amazon_image]

A book that will change your mind

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As an author, I’ve learned that most readers take out of a book what they bring to it. We all have our pre-existing worldview and it is rare for us to alter it. So I was struck by this comment by Ian Bright on a book I reviewed here last month, [amazon_link id=”0691158681″ target=”_blank” ]The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict and the Perilous Road Ahead for the World Economy[/amazon_link] by Michael Pettis. Ian writes: “I have now read Pettis book. It is as good (even better) than you outlined….. the book challenges much of the way I think about things.”

[amazon_image id=”0691158681″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict, and the Perilous Road Ahead for the World Economy[/amazon_image]

As his comment notes, the recent FT review of the book was somewhat unfair. It says the author ignores the importance of history, and gives the impression that this weakens the argument. I don’t agree. Anyway, it addresses the overall pattern of global imbalances so it would be a monster task to embed that in an informative history of the world’s major trading blocs.

If you are interested in the global economy and believe yourself to have an open mind, I urge you to read it. It’s ideal for students too because it sets out so clearly the operation of the accounting identities of the balance of payments.

City in a box

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A manual for building cities? A guest review by Philip Thornton

The role of cities in local, national and supranational areas is becoming a key focus for economists. More than half of the human population now lives in an urban rather than rural environment, as the  UN has repeatedly warned although some (pdf) quibble with the definitions.

As a result there is a greater focus by economists on both what the impacts of this shift are and will be, and also on how one should think about ways of ensuring that this process of urbanisation bring greater human well-being rather than simply larger slums and greater potential for worse epidemics or civil conflicts. Perhaps the best –known example in this direction is Paul Romer’s proposal for “charter cities”.

Now a new book has drawn together essays by, or interviews with around 30 planners, architects, politicians, urban designers and city managers. Well not so much a book as a magazine, but at 140 A4 pages its word count would match the length of a similar book on the issue.

It is issue number 34 of a magazine/book called Volume, published by ARCHIS, a Netherlands based publisher and the C-Lab at Columbia University in New York, and is called City in a Box. ([amazon_link id=”9077966331″ target=”_blank” ]Back issues of Volume[/amazon_link] can be found on Amazon.)

City in a Box

In its editorial it makes clear that its focus is on the entities that are taking the initiative, making the decisions and establishing the governance of the new towns that are needed to meet the demand from a rising and increasing city-seeking population.

As editor-in-chief Arjen Ossterman says: “The general tendency is that companies instead of governments and their planning departments are starting to create and run cities – the full package or ‘city in a box’.” This will certainly ring bells in the UK which may not be building new towns but is looking at the private sector to design, fund and own the infrastructure needed to keep our existing, creaking cities going.

The book is thick with detail and plans and covers new cities across the world – and especially the emerging world. A fascinating map shows there are precisely four new towns  built or proposed since 1990 in Europe – including Strand East in the former London Olympic Park. There are 600 in China and India alone.

Michelle Provoost, director of the New Towns Institute, points out that in establishing new towns, emerging economies are only coping what the UK in particular did after World War II to build “neighbourhood units as structural principle” such as Milton Keynes and Welwyn Garden City. But she points out than the driver this time is not post-war desolation but a desire by the enriched middle and upper class households for new high quality living. The new “new town” is very much a commercial product.

The interviews and articles are interspersed with “tips for building a new town”, which include advice such as replicating your product and designing the post card image. Confusing the tips also include the possibly contradictory messages to “find multiple ways to profit” and “find justification other than profit”.

But perhaps the most interesting section for economists is the one of governing the city as it raises  issues of ownership, division of responsibilities and public goods. Scot Wighton, city manager of Lavasa Corporation that is building a private, planned city in Pune, India, points out that Lavasa is not yet a town under Indian law. This means that while he has responsibility for water, sewage, power, has transport, parks and many more things, he is accountable to the corporation president. As a result there is no power to tax or establish a public health authority. He acknowledges that it is not possible to have half a million people living under the rule of a company for ever and that transition to state ownership will come.

But in the meantime he highlights a real concern among investors over the security of their assets. The only way to make this assurance is through devolution of some authority, he says. “So how can we do that and still fit into the context of an Indian democracy? I think we have a way to do it but…until it happens we have this quasi-public-quasi-private city.”

A chart showing the structure of ownership and control of new towns such as Strand East shows that the London Borough of Newham is just an investor while the developer is a private company, LandProp Holdings BV. Welcome to a brave new world.

Overall it is primarily a publication for architects and urban designers and, at €19.50 an edition, carries a hefty price tag. But considering the growing importance of the study of economics geography and spatial economics in the UK many of the growing number of students, teachers and practitioners in this field may feel it worthwhile.

One small quibble is that the page numbers are right next the middle centrefold so makes it hard to flick through to the page you are seeking.

Phil Thornton is lead consultant at Clarity Economics. www.clarityeconomics.com