Early modern finance, central planning and technology

Self-indulgently, I read *another* novel this week, Francis Spufford’s [amazon_link id=”0571225195″ target=”_blank” ]Golden Hill[/amazon_link]. It has some relevance to this blog, with fascinating insight into early modern (18th century London-New York) finance. Unlike his brilliant [amazon_link id=”0571225241″ target=”_blank” ]Red Plenty[/amazon_link], however – which was about the formal equivalence of a centrally planned economy and a decentralised competitive general equilibrium (under certain assumptions, naturally) – [amazon_link id=”0571225195″ target=”_blank” ]Golden Hill[/amazon_link] is only tangentially about economics, to be transparent about it. It is, though, a rattling good read, highly recommended, and impossible to say more about without spoilers.

[amazon_image id=”0571225195″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Golden Hill[/amazon_image]

Anybody who hasn’t yet read [amazon_link id=”0571225241″ target=”_blank” ]Red Plenty[/amazon_link] should make it a priority. I also adore Spufford’s [amazon_link id=”0571214975″ target=”_blank” ]Backroom Boys[/amazon_link], a hymn to the otherwise unsung heroes of British engineering. And his volume with Jenny Uglow, [amazon_link id=”0571172431″ target=”_blank” ]Cultural Babbage: Technology, Time and Invention[/amazon_link].

[amazon_image id=”0571225241″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Red Plenty[/amazon_image] [amazon_image id=”0571214975″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Backroom Boys: The Secret Return of the British Boffin[/amazon_image] [amazon_image id=”0571172431″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Cultural Babbage: Technology, Time and Invention[/amazon_image]

Because we all need more books to read…

Friday evening is a time for settling on the sofa with the magazines and catalogues that have arrived during the week, and last night it was the next season’s catalogue for Harvard University Press. There are some terrific upcoming offerings. Top of my list will be Richard Baldwin’s [amazon_link id=”067466048X” target=”_blank” ]The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization[/amazon_link]. His papers on the successive ‘unbundlings’ in production driving global trade are wonderful.

[amazon_image id=”067466048X” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization[/amazon_image]

Plenty of others look enticing too. [amazon_link id=”0674743806″ target=”_blank” ]Capital Without Borders: Wealth Managers and the One Percent [/amazon_link]by Brooke Harrington – a study of the professional advisers who make global inequality possible. [amazon_link id=”0674659686″ target=”_blank” ]The Market as God[/amazon_link] by Harvey Cox looks intriguing, theology meets economics. [amazon_link id=”0674059786″ target=”_blank” ]Once Within Borders: Territories of Power, Wealth and Belonging Since 1500[/amazon_link] by Charles S Maier – “territorial boundaries transform geography into history,” says the blurb. [amazon_link id=”0674737296″ target=”_blank” ]China’s Crony Capitalism: The Dynamics of Regime Decay[/amazon_link] by Minxin Pei will be a must-read for China-watchers. Also interesting-looking is [amazon_link id=”0674971132″ target=”_blank” ]Unlikely Partners: Chinese Reformers, Western Economists, and the Making of Global China[/amazon_link] by Julian Gewirtz.

[amazon_image id=”0674743806″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Capital Without Borders: Wealth Managers and the One Percent[/amazon_image] [amazon_image id=”0674659686″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Market as God[/amazon_image] [amazon_image id=”0674059786″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Once Within Borders: Territories of Power, Wealth, and Belonging Since 1500[/amazon_image] [amazon_image id=”0674737296″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]China’s Crony Capitalism: The Dynamics of Regime Decay[/amazon_image] [amazon_image id=”0674971132″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Unlikely Partners: Chinese Reformers, Western Economists, and the Making of Global China[/amazon_image]

[amazon_link id=”0674545478″ target=”_blank” ]VIrtual Competition: The Promise and Perils of the Algorithm-Driven Economy[/amazon_link] by Ariel Ezrachi and Maurice Stucke will be one for competition policy and IO folks. So too a recent title, [amazon_link id=”0674971426″ target=”_blank” ]Antitrust Law in the New Economy: Google, Yelp, LIBOR, and the Control of Information[/amazon_link] by Mark Patterson.

[amazon_image id=”0674545478″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Virtual Competition: The Promise and Perils of the Algorithm-Driven Economy[/amazon_image] [amazon_image id=”0674971426″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Antitrust Law in the New Economy: Google, Yelp, Libor, and the Control of Information[/amazon_image]

One for all newshounds, [amazon_link id=”0674545508″ target=”_blank” ]Democracy’s Detectives: The Economics of Investigative Journalism[/amazon_link] by James Hamilton. And for all Camus fans, I spotted the backlist title [amazon_link id=”0674724763″ target=”_blank” ]A Life Worth Living: Albert Camus and the Quest for Meaning[/amazon_link] by Robert Zaretsky.

[amazon_image id=”0674545508″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Democracy’s Detectives: The Economics of Investigative Journalism[/amazon_image] [amazon_image id=”0674724763″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]A Life Worth Living: Albert Camus and the Quest for Meaning[/amazon_image]

The platform era

The economics of digital platforms, including the sharing economy, has become a hot topic – not only among researchers but also with several new books for the non-specialist reader. Yesterday I took part in the Digital Forum organised by the Toulouse School of Economics – home of Nobel Laureate Jean Tirole, one of the first economists to analyse platforms (or two-sided or multi-sided markets). It was a packed event with some fascinating contributions. And on the train to and from Paris, I read [amazon_link id=”1633691721″ target=”_blank” ]Matchmakers[/amazon_link] by David Evans and Richard Schmalensee. This follows on from [amazon_link id=”0393249131″ target=”_blank” ]Platform Revolution[/amazon_link] by Geoffrey Parker, Marshall Van Alstyne and Sangeet Paul Choudary (which I reviewed here), and [amazon_link id=”0262034573″ target=”_blank” ]The Sharing Economy[/amazon_link] by Arun Sundararajan (here).

[amazon_image id=”1633691721″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Matchmakers: The New Economics of Multisided Platforms[/amazon_image] [amazon_image id=”0393249131″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Platform Revolution: How Networked Markets are Transforming the Economy–and How to Make Them Work for You[/amazon_image]

[amazon_image id=”B01F26CC4S” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Sharing Economy: The End of Employment and the Rise of Crowd-Based Capitalism[/amazon_image]

All three are well worth reading – they all clearly explain the economic characteristics of digital platforms, with lots of examples. Inevitably there is some overlap but in fact the books complement each other nicely and also include different examples. [amazon_link id=”0393249131″ target=”_blank” ]Platform Revolution[/amazon_link] takes more of a business design perspective, while [amazon_link id=”B01BG90H9W” target=”_blank” ]The Sharing Economy[/amazon_link] is specifically focused on peer-to-peer markets. [amazon_link id=”1633691721″ target=”_blank” ]Matchmakers[/amazon_link] has more about the economic analysis and public policy questions including competition – David Evans’ earlier book, a collection of papers, [amazon_link id=”1468102729″ target=”_blank” ]Platform Economics[/amazon_link], was quite heavily focussed on the competition issues.

Some of the examples in [amazon_link id=”B01BO6QMCI” target=”_blank” ]Matchmakers[/amazon_link] are very nice. I particularly liked the case of the US trucking industry. There’s also a chapter on M-Pesa, which I know a bit about; it is a nice description of how it worked in Kenya, although I’d have been interested to read about why mobile money platforms have failed in so may unbanked countries – regulatory barriers in my view. One of the questions about platforms’ success or failure is the extent to which they take advantage of opportunities for regulatory arbitrage on the one hand and can be killed by hostile regulation on the other hand.

Marshall Van Alstyne was one of the participants in the Toulouse School of Economics event and gave a great talk including this chart; he and I agreed that there is a huge research agenda on this subject as we’re entering the era of platforms. I have an issues paper out soonish, sketching some of the questions.

Marshall Van Alstyne at the TSE Digital Forum 16/6/2016

Marshall Van Alstyne at the TSE Digital Forum 16/6/2016

The N word

Neoliberalism. I’ve been dipping into [amazon_link id=”1107671191″ target=”_blank” ]Prisoners of Reason: Game Theory and Neoliberal Political Economy[/amazon_link] by S.M.Amadae. This book argues that game theory (and particularly the Prisoner’s Dilemma) has been a key organising principle and political weapon of neoliberalism. That public policy sees all social and economic relations through the lens of strategic (non-co-operative) interaction by rationally maximising individuals. That Dr Strangelove won the cold war, and won the battle of domestic politics too, shaping modern capitalist society in his own image. The book draws a line from nuclear strategy to thinking about global warming and everything in between.

[amazon_image id=”1107671191″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Prisoners of Reason[/amazon_image]

It seems to me that a large part of S.M.Amadae’s objection is to the idea of ‘rational’ self-interested agents at all, not just to the assumption made in game theory models (and for my tastes the book should have been more careful about distinguishing co-operative from non-co-operative games). She clearly objects to ‘neoliberalism’. My heart leapt, briefly, when I saw a section titled ‘Defining neoliberalism’. It says: “Neoliberalism has a number of agreed-upon facets. All value is commodified and financialized. Work and gradual wealth accumulation are replaced with speculation, risk management and casino finance. …. Experts denounce the possibility for collective actions. … ” This is such a straw man that it didn’t help me at all. Sure, financial markets ran amok, and many – most? – economists identify regulatory, political and ethical failures behind that. Still, there are hardly any of us who think collective action to address climate change is impossible, still less undesirable. Yet it does not seem to me to make us neoliberal if we argue that it’s hard to achieve, that game theory can help us understand why, that we should use market incentives to reduce emissions when possible etc. Yet I suspect Amadae believes we are all neoliberals.

She also seems to believe Richard Dawkins’ [amazon_link id=”0199291152″ target=”_blank” ]The Selfish Gene[/amazon_link] is a key building block of neoliberalism, giving an evolutionary justification to the use of a game theoretic approach. It wasn’t clear to me what she actually thinks about evolutionary theory per se – is it only the Dawkins version she rejects? –  or whether or not it’s a good idea for economics and social science to be consistent with evolutionary biology. She certainly doesn’t like it that evolutionary biologists use game theory, which is quixotic. This chapter ends: “In game theory, norms are Nash equilibria to games in which actors’ preferences and strategies are encoded to result in regularized patterns of play. The only ways to modify the outcomes are to apply incentives or to shock the system such that possibly another stable mutual-best-reply equilibrium could emerge.” The second of these sentences is not correct. Incentives won’t modify the outcomes – that’s the point about a Nash equilibrium. And shock is not the only way to change things. Co-operation to create a new focal point – or changing the rules of the game, the preferences, another, as [amazon_link id=”0691173699″ target=”_blank” ]Kaushik Basu[/amazon_link] for one has discussed.

[amazon_image id=”B01GI5F2FS” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Selfish Gene: 40th Anniversary edition (Oxford Landmark Science)[/amazon_image]

Perhaps we economists ought to stop using £ or $ as a unit of measurement in some areas of our work. It seems to me that at least some of the anger about ‘financialization’ and ‘marketization’ in ‘neoliberalism’ stems from the habit of converting all figures in the trade-offs being considered into monetary terms. Opportunity cost could be measured in butterflies, or bitcoin. It isn’t marketization; it’s physics and logic to point out that the same resource, time or land or oil, can’t be used twice. Economists certainly ought to be more willing to talk about social influences and about what forms preferences and about power. But – as ever – I find the N-word, neoliberalism, obscures more than it clarifies. Amadae cites Philip Mirowski’s [amazon_link id=”0521775264″ target=”_blank” ]Machine Dreams[/amazon_link], which I thought a highly ideological book. For me, Paul Strathern’s [amazon_link id=”067697449X” target=”_blank” ]Doctor Strangelove’s Game[/amazon_link] is a straighter account of the role of game theory – not at all uncritical – and E Roy Weintraub’s [amazon_link id=”0822312530″ target=”_blank” ]Toward a History of Game Theory[/amazon_link] a detailed historical study of its importance in economics.

[amazon_image id=”0521775264″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Machine Dreams: Economics Becomes a Cyborg Science[/amazon_image] [amazon_image id=”067697449X” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Dr. Strangelove’s Game : A Brief History of Economic Genius[/amazon_image] [amazon_image id=”0822312530″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Toward a History of Game Theory (History of Political Economy Supplement) (History of Political Economy: Annual Supplement)[/amazon_image]

China and GDP

I’ve been a bit unwell this week so have been relaxing with not one, not two, but three detective novels – Chief Inspector Chen in the series by Qiu Xiaolong set in Shanghai. They’re hardly action packed but they have a lot about Chinese politics and also the fabric of everyday life, including food. Fascinating.

One of this week’s [amazon_link id=”1473616786″ target=”_blank” ]Don’t Cry, Tai Lake[/amazon_link] has a plot about environmental activism against industrial pollution. Whatever China’s GDP growth has been – much disputed – it has been fast enough to have exacted a serious environmental cost. Inspector Chen reports back to his Party patron: “I focused my research on issues of the environment. … Pollution is so widespread that it’s a problem all over China. To some extent, it’s affecting the core of China’s development with GDP-centred growth coming at the expense of the environment. It can’t carry on like this, Comrade Secretary Zhao. Our economy should have sustainable development.”

I’ve been working on a paper on the political economy of economic statistics, for a conference in 10 days. Many, many people would agree with Chief Inspector Chen, and not just about China, but it’s hard to move from GDP-centred to something else centred without a consensus about what the something else should be. Perhaps China could assist the political economy of such a transition given its need for a measure that can show increasing economic welfare without costing the earth.

[amazon_image id=”1473616786″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Don’t Cry, Tai Lake: Inspector Chen 7 (Inspector Chen Cao)[/amazon_image] [amazon_image id=”1473616808″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Enigma of China: Inspector Chen 8 (Inspector Chen Cao)[/amazon_image] [amazon_image id=”1473616824″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Shanghai Redemption: Inspector Chen 9 (Inspector Chen Cao)[/amazon_image]