Forward thinking

I’ve started reading Mark Mazower’s [amazon_link id=”0141011939″ target=”_blank” ]Governing the World: The History of an Idea[/amazon_link]. It traces the idea of international governance back to its origins in the early 19th century. Two chapters in, I’ve already learned a lot. One striking point is that a kind of ‘future mentality’ emerged in the mid-years of the 19th century, and helps explain the acceleration of economic and political change:

“Historians of overseas European settlement have recently begun to argue that what was once written off as a boom/bust mentality of the colonial frontier needs to be taken more seriously as a kind of bet on the future that emerged quite suddenly in the 19th century in response to the shrinkage of time and space, a moment when the pace of change seemed to be accelerating. This ‘future thinking’ drove both capitalism and colonialism. It expressed itself in speculative fevers and land grabs, survived the inevitable crashes, failures and disappointments, and found confirmation in rapidly growing cities, new transcontinental communications, and a succession of technological marvels.”

Economists pay so much attention to modelling expectations, but don’t think enough beyond the mathematical formalities about how the way people think about both the future and the past determines the decisions and choices they make today. The only place I’ve come across this kind of thinking modelled is an old (1991) Paul Krugman QJE paper, History versus Expectations.

I like Mark Mazower’s books, having read both hisĀ [amazon_link id=”0140241590″ target=”_blank” ]Dark Continent: Europe’s Twentieth Century[/amazon_link] and[amazon_link id=”0007120222″ target=”_blank” ] Salonica, City of Ghosts[/amazon_link]. More on this one when I’ve got my head around his thesis.

[amazon_image id=”0141011939″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Governing the World: The History of an Idea[/amazon_image]

4 thoughts on “Forward thinking

  1. The “discipline” of Economics largely arose in developed countries in the last two to three centuries. This was the era of Empires, nation states and all that which rolled on into Internationalism. I still recall the conference attended in London in 1952 on the notion of world citizenship. If it all goes the way I think it might and we revert to tribalism, there seems to be no economic theory or structure of ideas that can cope with that.

  2. It’s off-topic. But I’d just like to thank you Diane for encouraging me to go back to my economics textbook. I had completed some of the macroeconomics topics, but I’ve gone back to the beginning with the aim of working through to the end.

    I’ve decided to post my answers to the exercises (and also the authors’ summary, key concepts and further reading) on my blog:

    http://stevenclarkesblog.wordpress.com/2013/07/02/economics-part-1-chapter-1/

    I hope to post each chapter as I complete it. There may be mistakes as I’m teaching myself, but it might be a useful resource for people to see.

    Please take a look. I’d also be grateful if you have a look at my blog. I only started it a couple of weeks ago. It has no definite theme, but there’s a few posts on economic matters, and some are based around books I’ve been reading (much like your format). I’d be grateful for any comments or advice.

    • That sounds like quite a responsibility – I hope you find the textbook work fruitful! I like your blog. My advice is to write frequently (get into the habit of noticing a thought that will turn into a short post), tweet the links, and be patient because it takes awhile to gain a readership. Oh, and your ‘About’ page needs filling out….

  3. Pingback: Forward thinking | Fifth Estate

Comments are closed.