The Evolution of New Markets

I'm looking forward to being able to post a guest review soon of Timothy Wu's acclaimed new book about prospects for a free internet, The Master Switch. His argument is that with previous generations of new communications technologies, big business sews up the market after a period of tremendous competition and innovation. (There was a very informative review in The Guardian last weekend by John Naughton.) I'm also looking forward to reading it myself, market structure being one of my favourite subjects.

Meanwhile, I pulled off the shelf a past (2003) classic on this subject, The Evolution of New Markets by the late Paul Geroski. Paul was chairman of the Competition Commission when I was a member of it, and was one of the most brilliant applied economists it has ever been my privilege to work with. (His friend and colleague Saul Estrin wrote this obituary in The Independent.)

The Evolution of New Markets covers in 200 pages all of the basic economics of dynamic new technology markets with large economies of scale, network effects, disruptive innovations, lock-in etc etc. His conclusions don't conflict with what I understand Wu to be arguing – big corporations always do what big corporations do – but Geroski is an optimist about the scope for disruptive new technologies to overturn incumbents time and time again.

The other classic is Varian and Shapiro's Information Rules, well over a decade old (1998) and still highly relevant.

Competition economics still has a long way to go in understanding the dynamics of technology markets – what does effective competition mean in two-sided markets with network effects? If disruptive entry is so important, what are the important barriers to entry, including regulatory barriers? How should consumer welfare be assessed in a dynamic way, and what's the relevant time horizon? Fascinating stuff. It's what I would be studying if I had my student days over again.